WORKING PAPERS
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From Buzz to Bust: How Fake News Shapes the Business Cycle (with Fabrice Collard, Patrick Fève and S.J. Huber) CEPR DP#18912. March 2024 (submitted).
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Fake News: Susceptibility, Awareness and Solutions (with A. Cardaci and S.J. Huber) TSE-WP#1519, March 2024 (submitted).
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Consumption and Account Balances in Crises: Have We Neglected Cognitive Load? (with A. Cardaci and M. Haliassos) TSE-WP#1499, December 2023
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The ability to Distill the truth​ (with A. Cardaci). TSE-WP#1280, December 2021
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The Leverage Self-Delusion: Perceived Wealth and Cognitive Sophistication (with A. Cardaci, D. Delli Gatti). TSE-WP#19-1055, February 2021 (submitted).
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The Hammer and the Dance: Equilibrium and Optimal Policy during a Pandemic Crisis (Macroeconomics Group at TSE). CEPR DP#14731 Vox column
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Heterogeneous Firms and International Trade: The role of productivity and financial fragility (with D. Delli Gatti, J. Grazzini, G. Ricchiuti), CESifo WP#5959, June 2016.
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WORK IN PROGRESS
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Inflation Expectations and Durable Consumption: New Evidence during High-vs. Low-Inflation Periods (with S.J. Huber, A. Mogilevskaja and T. Schmidt)
This paper examines the relationship between inflation expectations and consumer spending in low- and high-inflation environments. We find that the effect of short-term inflation expectations on planned spending is stronger in a high-inflation environment compared to a low-inflation environment, even when controlling for expected income changes. However, inflation expectations do not significantly affect current spending, regardless of the inflation environment. We also investigate the role of individual uncertainty about future inflation and show that uncertainty determines inter-temporal decision-making. Inflation uncertainty matters less during high- compared to low-inflation periods. Finally, this paper investigates why expected inflation does not affect current spending. We identify different channels that mute the overall effect of expected inflation. We find that expected income flexibility plays a vital role in periods of high inflation, while financial uncertainty plays a critical role in periods of low inflation.
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Recent Developments in the German Labor Market: Hours worked, Reshuffle, Resignation, Long-Covid (with S.J. Huber, A. Mogilevskaja)
Recent reports suggest that the labor supply decreased drastically compared to pre-pandemic. This project will investigate how workers’ labor supply has changed since the pandemic’s onset and the underlying reasons for these changes. Individuals may alter/reduce their labor supply patterns for several reasons, e.g., due to (i) continued disruptive childcare/schooling, (ii) incapacity due to Long-Covid, or because the pandemic has permanently altered their (iii) preferences governing the trade-off between working hours (i.e., consumption) and leisure, or (iv) their job preferences for flexibility. Effective policy-making requires knowledge of what motivations are underlying observed changes in labor supply behavior, as the differing underlying motivations would each require very different policy responses. This project’s second objective addresses how to decrease the labor supply shortage in Germany. Empirical evidence shows that the employed skilled workers have significantly decreased their working hours since the onset of the pandemic, and the average number of hours worked by the employed remains below pre-pandemic levels. Conducting a survey experiment (with various treatments), we aim to find sector-specific solutions. We will investigate how firms could increase their current part-time employees’ labor market participation (hours worked). In addition, we explore with an experiment what keeps skilled workers in the "hidden reserve" and how to incentivize them to join the labor force.
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Inflation: What do people know and why do they care? (with S.J. Huber and Tanja Linta)
This project aims to elicit citizens’ understanding of and behavioral responses to inflation (i.e., their economic choices) using a large-scale survey experiment of a representative sample of the U.S. population. Using an information provision experiment, we aim to test the effectiveness of simple educational policy interventions on citizens’ understanding of inflation. In addition, we will study whether providing citizens with targeted information about their personal inflation knowledge gaps affects their willingness to invest in financial education -- to improve their understanding of inflation and monetary policy -- and by that improve their financial decision making.